It's just one game, but I think I was wrong

My focus on yesterday's opening day game between the Padres and dbacks was probably not the same as most other people. I was not expecting a new look Padre lineup, because the lineup is essentially the same as the end of last year. I was not waiting to see the running game in action, because these are real games now, which means less risk, and many of the spring steals were sent down at the end of spring. I was not expecting Garland to be the Padres new ace, because he's Jon Garland. So the loss was ugly, but not totally unexpected against a true ace like Dan Haren. The fielding was bad, but that happens (and sure made me feel better about our little league team!).

My focus was on the broadcast. You see, no matter how the team plays, I will watch every single game. Sure, it's more fun to watch a winner, but I think this young team will do decent, and is moving in the right direction, so I'm not worried about that. And I will watch regardless. So my focus was on Dick Enberg foremost, and to a lesser extent on Mark Grant. I was worried about bringing in the seventy something year old, but I though Enberg did an excellent job. He was very prepared and his normal professional self. He has this pace to the way he calls the game, and I found it very enjoyable. I was very pleasantly surprised and positive about that part of the game.

Mark Grant was a little off yesterday. You could tell this was a reigned in Grant, which I do not consider a good thing, but it was the first game he's done with Enberg and he has to be a lot intimidated by him. I hope as the season goes along, he will loosen up and they will mesh better than yesterday. I think that is a realistic expectation.

The grind and game 2 start tonight. Let's see if the kids can bounce back, even up their record and then take their first series tomorrow. That will be the big test, to see if the team can keep winning series like they did at the end of last season. Hopefully they can and the entire season will be full of surprises!

Boy the NL West has been busy this winter...Not!

Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors.com runs through all of the additions and subtractions for the NL West so far this winter. It's not just quiet in Padre land, it is quiet in the entire NL West! This list is downright embarrassing for all parties!

Well, outside of Arizona. They have been very active, but it is difficult to say they are a lot better off than before. Just getting Webb back will be huge for them, if he comes back to pre-shoulder injury form. But who is the real Edwin Jackson? The guy of the first half for the Tigers, or the guy that is on his fourth big league team before the age of 25 (ish, not really sure and too lazy to look it up)? And seems to me that their pitching wasn't a huge problem last year, it was their offense. Sure, the young guys might get better, but don't they bank on that every year? And this list was before Kelly Johnson, so maybe that will help, but not so much that I would worry about them this year.

The Dodgers are just hilarious. "The pending divorce has no effect on our baseball operations." "The pending divorce has no effect on our baseball operations." "The pending divorce has no effect on our baseball operations." Are they wearing ruby red slippers and clicking the heels together as they stick to their mantra? Because otherwise this is an out-and-out lie! They need about three starters.

The Giants need more offense, and 35 year old Mark DeRosa is not doing it all himself. If they could get some bats to go with that rotation, they would be a front runner in my book. They need to do something, but maybe they are worried about Lincecum's arbitration hearing and are saving money for that. Expect some proven major league veterans (read desperate former bats) to sign there in January to fill out the roster.

The Rockies haven't done much, but if you were them, and you considered yourself the class of the West, which I think they do, they really haven't been pushed to do much so far. Hopefully they continue their up and down cycle and have another off year.

And our Padres? They've done nothing, but at least that means that AG is still in town, and that's a good thing. They need big years from a lot of guys on offense, and some surprises from the starting pitching pool they've stockpiled, and maybe, just maybe, there is a 85 win season in there. As of right now, 85 might be enough!

Winter Meetings Day 3 Recap

The mlb.com headline is "Padres laying groundwork for moves". Translated, that means "We were working, even if it doesn't look like it". The Padre highlights:

• Kouz: Drawing lots of interest, but no good offers. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
• Correia: "Hoyer said the team will likely either sign Correia to a deal before the deadline or they will trade him." So either he takes a lower than arbitration market figure to stay, or the Pads find someone else to give them a shade over league average performance for next year (for clearly the Pads aren't buying his last six game stretch as an indicator of future performance). So, there will be two open rotation spots (I'm putting down Young, Latos and Richard in pencil for now) with a pool of Stauffer, LeBlanc, Ramos, Gallagher and Poreda, plus the ubiquitous cheap veteran reclamation project they will sign during the end of January free agent clearance sale. I understand the argument that you really shouldn't pay a premium for basically replacement level players, but there is at least something to be said for KNOWING you will get at least replacement level performance . Also, I have this unfounded belief that pitchers develop later than hitters. I remember Jason Schmidt bouncing around the league then becoming a stud for the Giants, and I think that this happens all the time, even though, other than Jason Schmidt, I have no point of reference . What if Correia finally found his mojo at 29 and really can be the pitcher he was for his last 6 starts? The Pads, with scouts and analysis galore, say no, so I have to trust them.
• De La Cruz: Released.
• The rule 5 draft (technically this should be a day 4 recap item, since it happened this morning, but with this being the only real thing going on for day 4, I suspect there won't be a recap tomorrow): Pads made no selections in the major league portion. I thought with the dropping of de la Cruz yesterday they were clearing a spot to take someone in the rule 5 draft, but apparently not. Still one free spot on the 40 man roster, maybe it will be part of a 2 for 1 deal! Yeah, an actual deal, how about that?

In the rest of the majors, someone gave too much money and way too many years to Randy Wolf, a couple of relievers changed teams, some AL junk I sort of ignored, and that's about it. One of the quietest winter meetings I remember. Which should not be surprising in the quietest off season I remember so far. Sigh. I'm bored.

Winter Meetings Day 2 Recap

And I thought Day 1 was quiet, Day 2 is two meager rumors about Kouz:

• The Giants want Kouz, but Frandsen and Lewis does not sound like a serious offer. But that is exactly how I would start dealing with the Pads, assume they just want salary relief and offer diddly squat!
• Apparently the Twins wouldn't mind Kouz as well, offering Glen Perkins. I think this is year 3 on that rumor, both Kouz to the Twins and Perkins coming to the Pads. It is so slow in Indy, people are just dusting off last year's fodder and throwing it around! And I hate when there are rumors of trades with the AL, I have no frame of reference. I don't watch the AL, like never.

That is it. Mr Hoyer said he would be busy, I didn't realize that part of that meant keeping all information away from any media source! Throw us a bone Jed, drop some names, something.

D-backs made a big trade, sending out two very young pitchers for two slightly older but still young pitchers. Dave Cameron and Keith Law didn't like it from the d-backs perspective, nice! That's all I need to know.

Winter Meetings Day 1 Recap

Much ado about nothing. Let's see:

• Correia may be non-tendered if he does not give the Pads a home town discount.
• The scouting department reshuffling continues. I love to see Chris Gwynn in the news, because his huge double in the final game of the 1996 season to win the West for the Pads is invariable brought up. One of my favorite games of all time.
• Reed Johnson? Really? A 30+ year old never-was is option number 1 for a right handed hitting outfielder? Sure, if you want a narrow band of lead-off-hitting-right-handed-center-fielder, you don't have many options, but clearly, isn't there some minor league prospect that could do just as well and maybe, just maybe, have a smidgen of upside?
• In the same article, Moorad says all decisions going forward are baseball decisions, rather than financial decisions. That is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. If you set a budget at $40 million, there are no baseball decisions that are not financial decisions. They are one in the same. If it was strictly a baseball decision, there would be no financial constraints! And after reading the other 'highlights' from day one, (which I know are nothing but rumors, humor me) clearly those are all baseball decisions. Right.

In the rest of baseball, still nothing big. Is this the quietest off season in history?

Flash over substance

Oh great, another PR move. If you have seen any of the recent Charger games with Enberg doing the play by play, this is not good news. Sure he is iconic, but damn, the details count too! (Well, not on the radio broadcasts since about 1987, but that is a completely different topic.) He is constantly getting stuff wrong (players names, down and distance, etc.) and it is extremely annoying. I can see messing up when it is two DBs and one is 26 while the other is 28, but he gets Tomlinson and Sproles wrong almost every time. Come on! The last thing a Padre broadcast needs is another bumbling septuagenarian!

Mark Neely gets bagged on because he is not Mattie V. Duh! Mattie V was the best play by play guy the Pads have ever had, Neely was doomed for failure the moment he stepped in the booth.

I watch a lot of Padre games on TV, almost all of them when I am not at the game (and next year there will be 20 more I will be watching). Once you get past the fact that Mattie V is gone and won’t be coming back, Neely did a decent job. Mark y Mark got along well together, especially towards the end of the year, and given more time I think they would have gotten even better together.

Instead, we get Enberg who hasn’t done a baseball broadcast since T Gywnn Sr was 165 pounds. Since the Pads wore brown and yellow. Since the price of gas was $1. What a stupid idea.

Winter Meetings Preview

After weeks and weeks of absolutely nothing in the way of Padres news or rumors, we have next week's Winter Meetings to anxiously look forward to. Maybe some action, hopefully some action, hopefully something that gives us a hint as to what Mr Hoyer plans to do. At this point, anything will do!

Corey Brock's preview for MLB.com is up today. (If more pop up, I will update this post.) As par for the course, no great insight into the plan for the Pads this off season, just one quote about the pieces they are looking for:

"Offensively, finding a right-handed-hitting outfielder is something I would
like to do," Hoyer said. "We would be looking for a trade or free agent to do
that. I think we would like to add a veteran starter or reliever or both."

A right handed hitting outfielder, starter or bench guy? Like Kyle Blanks? Another one to balance out the five if Oscar is not in the mix? Come on Corey, ask some pointed questions!

Veteran stater or reliever, it's just so generic. With KT that meant a castoff that another team gave up on, what does that mean now? The budget remains the same, I would have to think the definition still applies. This was a specialty of KT's, so it will be interesting to see how Mr Hoyer approaches the same task with the same resources. It should tell us fans something.

"I expect to be really busy in Indy," Hoyer said.

Doing what he doesn't say, because the first quote doesn't seem like much work! (Maybe there is hazing ritual for new GMs at these meetings. Maybe, like a fraternity, he has to be a go-fre for the rest of the club.) And if he is busy, I hope we hear something about it or see some results from it. Because this month long silence is freaking annoying!

It's quiet, too quiet

What is going on in Padre-land? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Say it again.

The GM meetings told Padre fans absolutely nothing about the future of the Pads. No local stories about them at all, no blurbs or off-the-cuffs from the front office at all. Not even one rumor, just a bunch of boy-the-BoSox-really-like-Adrian crap.

There was another puff piece on Mr Hoyer that tells us nothing new. Just a re-packaging of the old I'm afraid.

We do know there is a meeting with AG's agent coming this week, but odds are slim we get any insight as to what goes on. Not like we have hard-working, aggressive staff writers looking to get of the competition. There is no media competition in San Diego, and fewer Padre staff writers every day! Some one steal Mr Hoyer's magic binder that got him the job for crying out loud!

Sure, its only been three weeks, but the silence is deafening. We need some clues as to what the new regime is all about. What's the direction, what's the plan, what's the strategy? We need some leaked information, even if it's leaked just to fool us. Give us something dammit! Because most of all, we are hopelessly bored!

Goodbye to Edgar

The Padres out righted Edgar Gonzalez today. I was surprised.

I'm not surprised because spots on the 40-man roster are pretty important at this time of the year, not only to hide guys from the rule 5 draft, but also to have spots if you want to draft anyone in it as well. And you don't spend roster spots on defensively challenged back up infielders with average batting skills. You just don't. Especially if you have two of virtually the same guy, Edgar and Oscar. Oscar definitely hit better down the stretch, and they better believe he has a plus bat or is the better defensive player, otherwise his roster spot should be in jeopardy as well! (I was also surprised that Edgar is younger than Oscar, sure, just 14 days, but I assumed Oscar was much younger. Not sure why I assumed that.)

No, the reason I am surprised is just last week they talked about locking Adrian up long term. If you want to lock up Adrian long term at a discount, maybe you carry his brother on the roster for awhile to suck him in to the playing at home meme. Don't you want to play in your home town, with your brother? Who wouldn't?

When you cut his brother, right as contract talks start, you immediately remind him that this is a business. If it's a business, then the home town discount flies right out the window!

Of course, they could also be sending him a message that this is a business, and he'd better choose wisely because he can be shipped out just as easily! Not sure if I'd want to use that message, but it's a possibility.

Or, going even further in reading into this transaction, they have already discussed numbers with AG's camp, and they are so far removed from common ground that the idea of signing him is no longer even possible. Might as well dump Edgar if that's the situation, they need the roster spot for the 4 for 1 trade of Adrian!

(Welcome to the off season, where stuff like this is bounced around a hundred times in a hundred ways, because there is literally nothing else to do!)

Adrian Gonzalez Extension

Jorge Says No had an interesting take on the Adrian Gonzalez extension question. I agree with him that something would have to be done this offseason. I think the longer it plays out, the more likely the two parties disagree on total value, and the more likely AG is traded. But I think the figures he throws out are very un-Padre like:

So how about this deal for Gonzalez and the Padres?
(5 years/$70 million)
Here is the contractual breakdown:
2010: $9 million
2011: $12 million
2012: $15 million
2013: $16 million
2014: $18 million

That replaces the $4.8M in 2010 and the 5.7M in 2010 he is currently contracted for and adds on three years. In the Moores/Towers world, I think any extension would have been added onto the existing deal, with no restructuring of the current amounts. I cannot see the figures for 2010 and 2011 doubling, that would be a deal breaker before anything even got started.

But we are now under the Moorad/Hoyer regime, and we fans have no track record with these two. But for Moorad, we can use his time at the d-backs and look for similar situations using Cot's Baseball Contracts.

The first comp that makes sense is Brandon Webb. He received a three year deal prior to 2004, covering 2004-2006 with an option for 2007, which I believe covered him until free agency. Before 2006, he received a 4 year extension, replacing the last year of his previous deal and the option year. For those two years, which were extremely club friendly at $2.5M and $4.5M respectively, he was essentially given the old contracted rate, the IP incentives were just added to the guaranteed money and no new money was added to the deal. Then the contract went up modestly by $1M each year until 2010's option of $8.5M. All in all, a very favorable contract for the team, which stayed favorable even after the extension.

Then next comp to consider is Dan Haren. He signed a four year deal with Oakland in 2005, covering 2006-2009 with an option for 2010. The option would have covered his first year of free agency. He was traded to Arizona before the 2008 season, and in August of that year signed a 4 year extension covering 2009-2012 with an option for 2013. In the original deal, here is what he was scheduled to make in 2009 and 2010:
2009 $5.5M with $0.75M in incentives
2010 $6.75M with $1.0M in incentives

This was replaced with:
2009 $7.5M
2010 $8.25M
2011 $12.75M
2012 $12.75M
2013 club option $15.5M

So, in both cases, the salaries under the existing contract did not change very dramatically.
So the d-backs added $1.75M to the exiting contract, before really ramping up the salaries in the new contract years.

Using these two transactions as the new model, I would expect the Padres to come up with something like this:
2010 $6.0M
2011 $7.0M
2012 $11.0M
2013 $13.0M
2014 $15.0M

That's 5 years, $52M. It adds $2.5M to the existing contract, and then spikes his salary to cover the next three years with figures that are club friendly to a small degree. It also allows the Padres a few years to get the payroll back to the $70M level where they can better afford AG's salary.

This does undervalue AG to a certain extent, but I think he would give a decent home town discount, on top of the usual San Diego discount everyone has to give to play here. It could be win-win.

The Ballad of Jed Hoyer

The Ballad of Jed Hoyer by Mike Dark
(with apologies to Paul Henning of Beverly Hillbillies fame)

Come and listen to a story about a man named Jed
A poor New Englander, all curses in their head,
Then one day, he joins the local team
And wins came round, curses be dead

Titles that is, not one, but two

Well the first thing you know ol Jed's the new heir,
Kinfolk said "Jed move away from there"
Said "A GM is where you ought to be"
So he loaded up the truck and moved to Californy.

San Diego, that is. Petco Park, Padres Baseball

Well now its time to get to work for Jed and his new kin
And they would like to thank you folks fer kindly droppin in.
You're all invited back a gain to this locality
To see him turn around the Padres History

Rebuilding that is. Set a spell, Take your shoes off, have some breakfast

Y'all come back now, y'hear?.

Jed Hoyer, the Padres new General Manager

Jed Hoyer, former assistant General Manger of the Boston Red Sox, has been named as the new San Diego Padres General Manager. You can find out a little about Mr. Hoyer (he's 35, is he really Mr.-worthy? Am I the first to call him Mr. Hoyer?) from Wikipedia. I immediately take notice of the fact he used to be a pitcher, like Towers. Not that will mean anything about his future performance, it is just one of those things we latch onto to like a life raft in a stormy indecisive sea. Its comfortable, its familiar, and therefore it associates itself that way in my impression and I feel a bit of hope. It also appears he is a native New Englander. I hope he doesn't have a thick accent, that would be a bit annoying.

I found a great Q&A from Baseball Analysts, with solid questions regarding the philosophies of running a front office. It is a bit old, published in February 2007, but I wouldn't think its out of date at all. A couple of good quotes:

The money quote (from my speculative Moorad perspective); “As boring as it sounds, I believe that the most important thing is to have a well-constructed,
well-thought out process to player acquisitions.” Does a well-constructed, well-thought out process include contingencies to take payroll from $70M to $40M in two months? I'm thinking no, but hopefully, knock wood, that won't be a recurring problem around here.

I also liked this quote about some prospects: “…but we are going to be careful not to overheat the hype machine.” Its all about expectation management! No, he wasn’t talking about the 37-25 stretch to end the Pads season, but he will be!

At Baseball Prospectus, Will Carroll wrote an article in June 2008 about the next 10 names that would be showing up in GM searches. He had Mr. Hoyer as the number 1 name, with the following write up:

"Hoyer has been at Theo Epstein's right hand since the start of the Red Sox revival. Taking over as Assistant GM after Josh Byrnes left to head up the rebuilding of the Diamondbacks, Hoyer was mentioned by nearly everyone asked as "the next big thing." Given Byrnes' success in Arizona, the Boston slot seems charmed. Like many in the delegatory Sox front office, Hoyer has had his hands in the various areas of baseball operations and doesn't seem to have a pronounced weakness. Some may remember that Hoyer was briefly the co-GM of the Red Sox during Epstein's equally brief hiatus, a testament to John Henry's confidence in the young exec. (Being 34 isn't the knock it once was; maybe it's old for this new generation of front office talent.) Hoyer has made it clear that he's comfortable winning rings in Boston and would want a similar situation to what Byrnes has in Arizona before leaving."

I last thing I found was a Boston.com recap of a chat at Sawxheads.com, a Red Sox fan blog, from September 8, 2008. Nothing interesting there however, just a bunch of worthless Red Sox questions.

In all, not a lot of web content about Mr. Hoyer. He has some big shoes to fill, and seemingly a lot to learn in switching from a cash cow to a small market team, but has a couple of things going for him. First, the relaxed and patient atmosphere of San Diego in which to work. More importantly, there is hardly any pressure in this situation, and no where to go but up.

Welcome and good luck Mr. Hoyer.

Another Padres Offseason Preview

Dan Hayes at the NC Times lists the important questions for the Padres this offseason. Since he asked, I think the quick answers are keep AG and Blanks as he is fine in the OF, keep Bell for PR, trade Kouz, Hundley is fine, Tony Jr is a 4th outfielder and you can never, ever have enough starting pitching.

A couple of comments:

• Another mention of the 37-25 stretch. If I was the Front Office, I would spend some time addressing that stretch. On his way out, Towers pointed to it as an indicator of the Pads being ready to contend next year. Moorad talked to it as well as a positive sign and part of the excellent job done by Towers this season. But, it just screams SMALL SAMPLE SIZE. And, with runs scored of 275 versus runs allowed of 259, Pythagoras would have had them at 4 games over .500 during that stretch instead of 12. I bet the new GM comes in trying to manage expectations a little better than has been done so far.
• Another mention of how the Pads should have money to spend. Yes, maybe even $8-10M! What does that get you in today's game? You could get one aging star trying to re-establish some market value for a year. You could get an average starting pitcher if you are willing to do that range for at least 3. You could get a couple of veteran projects, guys that have plenty of service time, but for whatever reason have a hole in their game that keeps them from finding a home in a teams line up. In other words, not much!

Offseason previews

The UT had their offseason preview today, and MLBTradeRumors ran theirs last week.

With payroll in the $40Ms, the new GM should have some room to make changes to the big league roster. Both articles suggest trades this offseason of arbitration eligible players; UT points to Kooz, due to the overlap of his and Headley's skill sets, and MLBTR says it should be Bell, to sell high. I agree on Kooz, especially if he can win the Gold Glove the Pads were campaigning for, because his value may never be any higher either. One of Kooz or Headley has got to go, and since Kooz is more expensive, I would bet it would be him.

I cannot see a new GM coming in and trading Bell. I could have seen Towers trading him, because he brought him in for nothing and has always been able to put a bullpen together from the scrap heap. But a new GM faces a number of hurdles:

• he would have to get a ton for him
• it would immediately start comparisons with Towers and remind everyone that Towers brought him in for nothing
• with the big change on Friday, losing one of the few immediately recognizable guys on the team would be another PR issue for the team

Not to say that any of these cannot be overcome. Just altogether, it makes a deal unlikely in my mind. I also think selling high is always a good idea. If we could count on Adams to stay healthy, I think its a no-brainer. But you can't, so it would be risky.

As always, they could use a big corner bat to help with the middle of the lineup. I would feel comfortable with the everyday lineup with one more hitter in the outfield, joining Venable in center and Blanks at the other corner. The infield is set with AG, Eck, Everth and Headley/Kooz. I think Hundley will get a little bit better behind the dish and stay above replacement level. That could be an above average lineup.

That leaves the rotation as the biggest question. And it starts with can we believe the performances we have seen, or were they just good (misleading) streaks? Is Correia's improvement for real? Is Richard a solid major league starter? Will CY stay healthy for a full season? Will the real Wade LeBlanc please stand up? How many innings will Latos be available for next year? There are a dozen internal candidates for the 5 spots, but do any give you the warm and fuzzy comfortable feeling?

I think that was KT's biggest plus, he knew pitchers. Pitching drives the team's performance. Its nice to have a good offense, but you need a good staff to compete. You can look at the stats all you want, and that may allow you to put together an effective pitching staff, but it made me comfortable that Towers had that gift of evaluating pitchers. When to buy (Heath Bell), when to sell (Adam Eaton), that's the most important thing Towers brought to the Pads for the last 15 years. And that will be hard to replace. And it will take time to get comfortable with the new GM, whoever they may be.

But change happens. Past performance doesn't guarantee future returns. It is what it is. Worry about the things you can control. Go ahead and pick your cliche. I am not making these decisions, so I don't fret over these decisions that are made. Lets see who comes in, and lets see their plan of attack. In the end, we all want the same thing, the Pads winning some games.

Are you FAKKING kidding me?

I sent my new Padre account rep the following email on Saturday:

“Dear Mr. Wuller,

I received my season ticket renewal package today and I could not be more disappointed. For the last few weeks, all Padre fans have heard was how 2010 prices would be going down and season ticket holders would receive more value for their money. The cover letter in the season ticket package reinforces these messages, and even states "We have reduced 86% of season ticket prices and kept the remainder flat (with 2009 prices). We know the economy remains challenging, and we're doing our part to keep PETCO Park affordable."

Imagine my dismay at seeing that our ticket prices were not reduced, were not even flat at 2009 levels, but actually INCREASED by 11%! I'm insulted and angry. Clearly the value spin is nothing more than that, marketing spin!

I can only hope there is a mistake in the invoice I received. If not, I doubt I will be renewing my seats for 2010. Please contact me as soon as you can to clarify my invoice, you have my email address and my phone number is listed below.

Regards,Mike”

I received this response today:

“Good Morning Mr. Dark,

Thank you for your email regarding your 2010 renewal package.

I apologize if the message sent out by the Padres is unclear. When comparing
prices for our 20 Game Season Ticket Holders we look at the price compared to
NON-Season Holders.

In the Left Field Lower Box section the price per ticket will be $27 but for you it will be $20/ticket. We have also lowered the price for Season Ticket Parking from $18 to $10, and your tickets for Opening Day will be lowered to $20 (down $8 from last year).

Please let me know if you have any other questions at all. I am always happy to
help.

Jeff Wuller

Account Specialist”

That explains it…NOT! It makes it worse! While the seats in lower left are going down for the general public from $28 to $27, the 20 game season ticket holder price is not going down a $1 as well, not staying flat, but going up $2! And this is after stating 86% are going down and the rest are flat. Except for you Mike.

What’s the message here? Is it:

• Since I haven’t quit on the team already, I probably never will so go ahead and gouge me next year.
• My loyalty in being one of the handfull of remaining season ticket holders is worth less than nothing.
• An agent is running the show and using the media for spin is covered in Agent 101.
• 20 season ticket holders are not real season ticket holders.
• all of the above.

I could not be more disappointed. Before Saturday, I never even considered dropping my season tickets, never wavered on my support for my team. But this is wrong.

On the bright side, I really can't afford them anyways.

Oh so close last night

Chase Headley had a monster game with a single, three doubles and a homer. A triple short of a cycle, so close. Heath even blew the save to get Chase another AB in the 11th. When Chase roped it down the line in that AB, I was hoping for a funny carom or the RF crashing into the wall, but alas, just his third double of the evening. Total bases 10 and 11. Nice. But ooohhh so close.

Sure a cycle is truly an irrelevant feat, a statistical oddity at best, completely meaningless at worst. But its the little things like this that make baseball so much fun! Just one cycle is all Padre fans want. Well that and one measly no-no. Is that too much to ask?

The Channel 4 broadcast just mentioned a Padres player has had three legs of a cycle 320 times. 320! Who knew? That averages 8 times per the 40 seasons, which is pretty close to the nine times this year it has happened. 9 times? I certainly don't remember that.

I don't think you should count the times when a guy gets his third hit with his last AB. Sure he has three legs of the cycle, but he never had a chance at a cycle. How many times did a Padre player come to the plate with a chance at a cycle? That has to be a much, much lower number.

Let's hear it for...

your 4th place Padres! Out of the cellar! The sun's a little brighter up here in 4th, birds chiping, the sounds of children's laughter, even the air smells cleaner. Its nice to be out of the cellar.

And since the disaster of the Cardinals series, the Pads have won 5 series in a row, 4 of which were on the road! If you take out both home and away sets against the Cards, the last team to beat the Pads in a series was Atlanta on August 3-5. That's 8 series wins and just two series losses since August 6. (I am damn sick of writing the Cardinals in the post, are you sick of hearing about it? Something must be done next year! Beating the Cards has to be a priority.) Its definitely progress.

And has the Wade LeBlanc we heard about for three years finally arrived? Lets hope so.

And I'm also sick of starting sentences with and.

Put on your rose colored glasses

After another win for the Padres last night, it struck me that the young team has been playing pretty good of late. But since I never trust my feelings on statements such as that, I dug into the numbers to see if they support that conclusion. Using MLB's sortable stats, I compared the Pads stats over the last 30 days to their results based on the entire season.

16-12 over the last 30 days, who woulda thunk it? Their runs scored equals their runs allowed, so you would expect them to go 14-14, but even still, .500 ball, even for a month, is a relief after these last two seasons!

Offensive stats comparison:
Season Last 30
AVG .240 .277
OBP .317 .352
SLG .382 .437

They have the second best OBP in the national league over the last 30 days, versus 14th for the season. Their SLG is up to 6th versus 15th on the season. Not too bad. Runs per game is 3.85 on the season, but 4.64 in the last 30 days, and they played 17 of the 28 games at home during that time frame as well. I can't factor that in, but they are well above average offensively for these last 30 days. (And I don't want to hear anything about sample sizes, just keep those rose colored glasses in place)

Pitching Stats comparison:

Season Last 30
OBA .337 .342
SLG .420 .396
WHIP 1.42 1.45
K/9 7.2 7.0
BB/9 3.7 4.1

Runs per game did drop for the last 30 days to 4.6 per game, versus 5.0 for the season, but still a below average staff across the board. I would guess the 17 home games helped the SLG drop. The strikeout and walk rates are still below average over the last 30 days, with the K rate decreasing versus the season rate. Not the prettiest picture here. I did not take the time to break it down between starters and the pen, and you can come to your own anecdotal conclusions there, but it really doesn't matter. The 2010 Padres will go as their pitching takes them, and they have a lot of work to do on the staff.

But, they did add a number of young arms the last couple of months, and will have some room to spend if the budget stays in the $40M range. (Rose colored glasses people!) If some of these arms can get plugged into the rotation next year (Gallagher, Poreda), at the very least we will have an exciting, young team with a decent chance at .500 ball. I'd take that. They can only go up, so we've got that going for us.

Farewell to Peavy

I have waited a bit to write this in an effort to stay somewhat even keeled.

Let me just say right off that I love Jake Peavy. I love watching him pitch, watching him yell at himself, watching him throw his body into his delivery and recklessly diving whenever the need arises. Even in the batters box, he wasn't giving anything up. He is the epitome of competitiveness, just an absolute joy to have on your side in a baseball game.

I just happened to be at his very impressive debut versus the Yankees at Qualcomm, and dozens of other starts since then. I still feel the sting of the strike (check swing or called, either way it was a strike dammit) that wasn't called in Arizona that prevented him from tying Seavers 10 consecutive strikeout record. I fully believed he would be the guy to throw the Pads first no-no. And I wouldn't have cared if he was taking up 30% of the teams payroll next year, he is fun to watch. He is entertaining all by himself.

When the trade first was announced, the first I saw was a Jon Heyman tweet at mlbtraderumors.com, I literally thought it was a mistake. Jon's tweet device must have submitted old data somehow, there is no way Peavy was sent to the White Sox AGAIN?!? We went down that road in May, he rejected it, the very thought of it made me laugh at the sheer impossibility of it. Had to be a mistake. Well, clearly it wasn't a mistake.

But I am not one of those I'll-never-watch-the-Pads-again reactionaries. I'm not cancelling my season tickets. And I'm not one to think that, from the outside looking in, that I could do a better job than the front office. It is not my job to construct the roster and it is not my job to balance the revenues versus expenses. So I don't worry about it. I watch and cheer on the Padres, whoever they may be. That is my sole job as a fan.

So to Jake, I will miss watching you play on a start by start basis. I wish you the best of luck in everything you do, and hope you are wildly successful with the ChiSox and beyond.

Onto the future. This season has been about 2010 since about the second week of April, and lately the front office has added many pieces to the puzzle. Let's hope a few of these guys pan out and make an impact.

Trade Deadline Day

Sounds like it might be a quiet day in MLB today. Most of the rumors I've read all include 'highly unlikely' in some form or another. That is no fun.

The only Padre rumors out there are Heath to the Marlins, Adrian to the Red Sox, or Heath and Adrian to the Red Sox. That would be quite the blockbuster, but a PR nightmare on the home front trading one or both of the 2009 Padre All-Stars.

For me, I like change. I enjoy watching Adrian and Heath play just as much as the next guy, but they are part of a team that is horrible. And it gets real tiresome watching a horrible team day in and day out, even with these two studs on the team. It is the day in and day out grind that is important, even more so than the standings.

The Pads were near the top of the standings in 2005, 2006 and 2007, and those teams were painful to watch on a day to day basis. Just painful, and winning did not mask that at all. Not to me.

Day in and day out, you mostly want a team that plays hard. You want a team that is solid in every phase of the game, and not consistently deficient in one area that drives you crazy, likes nails on the chalkboard, convulsion inducing crazy. You want a team with a good chance to win, maybe not today, but in the near future as the kids learn to be pros. Winning is flukey. We're Padre fans, we understand failure (not counting the bandwagon fans here), we just need a little hope to go with the loses.

So lets mix it up some, throw some more shit at the wall to see what sticks. Public relations is a stupid reason for any decision, if someone puts a good package together, pull the trigger. If they could get 6 good prospects for Adrian and Heath combined, I'd be okay with that. Sell high!